Without any real rational explanation, memory module prices have been rising sharply. This rise has been reflected in end-customer prices for several days now, and the phenomenon could be amplified. The beginning of the year had shown a downward trend… So how can we explain the situation, and what can we expect for the end of the year and the coming months?
This situation is caused by yet another episode in the Covid crisis. The golden period when hardware brands thought they had found King Solomon’s mines. Until they landed; violently for some. To go into more detail, these increases can be partly explained by Samsung’s production cutbacks, but also by the price hike of over 20% that Micron imposed on its customers. But it was mainly Samsung’ s action that impacted the market. The Korean company is the main supplier of chips to the global memory market, and is faced with two problems: making good its losses and reducing its inventory. It has therefore undertaken to reduce its NAND Flash wafer production by almost 50%. This reduction in production, which has been underway for several months, has led to a pronounced structural tension in supply throughout the market.
RAM: a tense end to the year and no positive outlook for early 2024
As you can see, the situation is even gloomier for SSDs. According to TrendForce, fourth-quarter prices for NAND Flash contracts are set to rise by between 8% and 13%. Faced with these forecasts, several major PC manufacturers/assemblers have decided to anticipate their supplies in order to benefit from relatively lower prices. In turn, this has led to purchasing volumes exceeding actual demand. So what position should you take if you need to buy? Buy now or wait? The situation is likely to persist until at least the middle of the first quarter of 2024. Without wishing to play Mrs. IRMA, it’s wise to keep a close eye on Black Friday bargains, as they could be the only good opportunities for the next few months.
