Rapidus is a name that has been circulating in semiconductor industry circles for some time now. This young Japanese company has been in the news for some time, with its bid to shake up the Taiwanese giant TSMC.
Its ambition: to offer 2nm chip etching from 2025… Mind you, we’re only talking about a prototyping phase. Mass production would be launched in 2027.
A bold, almost insolent announcement, in an industry where TSMC reigns supreme and where the billions invested by Intel continue to cause tremors.
So should Rapidus be taken seriously?
But who is Rapidus?
Rapidus didn’t come out of nowhere. The company was established in August 2022 and is considered to be Japan’s national semiconductor champion. It is jointly organised by the Japanese government, Sony, Toyota, KIOXIA, NTT, SoftBank, NEC and Electronics.
IBM is said to be taking part, contributing its long-standing expertise, particularly in the future development of 2nm chips. Above all, Rapidus has just got its hands on an EUV (Extreme Ultra-Violet Lithography) machine from ASML. Just a few days ago, the company confirmed that its first EUV machine had arrived at the IIM-1 wafer manufacturing plant in Chitose City for installation.
These machines are as huge as they are expensive, but above all they are capable of etching ultra-thin circuits, enabling Rapidus to quickly establish itself in the race. This acquisition makes Rapidus the first Japanese player to buy one. A fine trophy, which demonstrates Japan’s determination to get back into the miniaturisation race, but also its willingness to invest heavily.
The importance of 2nm
TSMC, the undisputed chip leader, plans to move to this stage around 2025. But given its lead over its competitors, it is clear that the company is more interested in management than in racing alone. Intel with its 18A and others think they can compete. Rapidus wants to make its mark in this frenetic race, and it’s clear that behind the company, the resources of the state are also there to push this market forward. But money, machines and willpower aren’t everything.
Japan’s return to the semiconductor scene
A few decades ago, Japan was a major player in the semiconductor industry. Then the country lost ground, leaving the Americans, the Koreans and above all the Taiwanese to dominate the market. Rapidus embodies this desire to regain control. The Japanese government supports this initiative, because it is also a question of technological sovereignty, and of no longer depending on other nations for the supply of advanced chips. We should bear in mind that tensions between China and Taiwan cast a shadow over the stability of this market in the coming months. Against this backdrop, seeing Japan once again become a semiconductor stronghold could reassure some Western players.
Nvidia, a potential partner?
According to some rumours, Nvidia could be interested in Rapidus’ services. While everything is rosy in Nvidia’s commercial life, voices are increasingly pointing to its dependence on TSMC… The same reasoning also applies to Apple. If Rapidus really succeeds in offering 2nm at the same level as TSMC, Nvidia would then have leverage to negotiate costs, flexibility and lead times. All this while removing a risk in the event of geopolitical tensions.
But Rapidus still has to keep its promises. And without prejudging the qualities of the Japanese company’s teams, the long road Intel is taking to get back to the top is worth considering.
This story is not just about machines, it’s also about talent and know-how. Engineers specialising in these technologies are rare and in high demand. Rapidus will have to learn fast, recruit the best, innovate, and avoid being trapped by delays or yield problems. Its timetable therefore seems very ambitious.
Rapidus vs TSMC: what are the real chances?
The real question is: can Rapidus really compete with TSMC in 2027?
For the moment, the “noise” surrounding Rapidus is arousing the curiosity of experts, but we have to face facts: the company has not yet begun mass production of a single generation of chips. The giant TSMC wasn’t built in a day, and it’s hard to imagine a new entrant climbing straight to the top.
However, it remains to be seen whether Japan’s political and economic support, IBM’s presence and access to ASML’s EUV will be sustained over the long term. We have also seen that countries under embargo, and without theoretical access to the latest machinery, are redoubling their ingenuity to ensure that they too have competitive technologies.
