Right now, hardware news is, to say the least, depressing. Indeed, there is often talk of components burning out or stock shortages between two articles discussing price increases. This latest news is not going to lift anyone’s spirits, quite the contrary. A new TrendForce report announces that memory supply contract prices could double in the first quarter!
TrendForce announces that memory supply contracts could double this quarter!
This time, it’s memory supply contracts that are likely to skyrocket in the first quarter of 2026. To put it simply, manufacturers have several options for sourcing memory. They can either buy on the spot market, where prices are deregulated but constantly updated, or they can sign supply contracts. The advantage of the latter is that it allows them to lock in prices over time, which is ideal for protecting themselves against sudden increases in the cost of these components. However, when prices fall on the spot market, they pay more than necessary, precisely because they are locked into a supply contract.
Each method has its advantages and disadvantages, but as things stand, it is better to sign a supply contract. On the one hand, this “locks in” a price and, on the other hand, it provides a small guarantee of receiving memory. However, prices are rising on the contract market and TrendForce is not optimistic. For PC DRAM, the increase is estimated at between 105 and 110%, compared to 88 to 93% for server memory. The mobile sector is also expected to be impacted, with increases estimated at between 88 and 93%, while the NAND market (SSD memory) is expected to see prices rise by 55 to 60%…
The worst part is that the first quarter is shaping up to be particularly unstable, and TrendForce indicates that it may raise its forecasts. It must be said that the major OEMs have seen their reserve stocks melt away, which does not work in their favor during negotiations. In short, when new contracts are signed, we can expect to see prices rise… Again.