SK Hynix is one of the world’s three memory production behemoths. A few days ago, the same company was predicting tension on the RAM market until at least 2028. Today, internal analysis notes have leaked, and within the company there seems to be a very pessimistic view of a positive market evolution in the short to medium term. This internal analysis highlights a prolonged imbalance, particularly for RAM intended for consumer PCs. For some weeks now, sources have been claiming that major memory manufacturers, such as SK Hynix, have been adopting very cautious strategies regarding their production capacities. On the one hand, these companies seem to be betting as much as possible on equipping AI and other servers, but they are also showing little confidence in this growth. Ultimately, these companies are not looking to open new production lines , preferring to “work” their margins.
The RAM “cartel” fears an AI bubble burst. China is speeding up.
And therein lies the paradox: fears of an AI bubble are tempering the desire to invest in new production capacity. But other signals are less visible, but exist all the same. While the “big boys” are switching their production to HBM or RAM servers, Chinese industry is unable to make the switch. As a result, it is clearly interested in this RAM market, which could be neglected by traditional players.
A phenomenon already observed with DDR4. A few days ago, the Chinese company CXMT unveiled its first DDR5-8000 and LPDDR5X-10667 memory modules to be designed entirely locally. However, despite this progress, CXMT is still some three years behind Samsung, SK Hynix and Micron in terms of production capacity. Meanwhile, Yangtze Memory Technologies Co. has quietly begun shipping its 3D NAND memory, again produced locally. So we’ll have to wait for a real ramp-up before we can expect Chinese production to fill the gap in the PC market. Certain brands, such as Lexar, will be watching very closely over the coming weeks.
