As for the memory market, unfortunately, upward pressure on prices is not over and is even expected to continue over the next few quarters. There is talk, once again, of a significant increase in the coming months, as well as throughout 2027. Ultimately, the light at the end of the tunnel is not expected to appear until 2028, when the major players increase their production capacity. Against this backdrop, there are several conflicting views regarding China’s role as a major producer.
Key Takeaway: Gradual increases through 2028!
From 40% to 50% in Q3 2026 and another 30% to 40% in Q4!Â
Over the coming quarters, memory prices are expected to continue rising. Estimates from the financial firm Jefferies indicate that these increases could range from 40 to 50% in the third quarter compared to Q2 2026. By the end of the year, these increases are expected to accelerate further, with an additional 30 to 40%. Prices are already high, and by the end of the year, the cost is expected to rise even further, despite a lull currently observed in the consumer sector. Worse still, in 2027, prices could rise another 40 to 45%.
Obviously, the AI sector is largely responsible for this price increase, partly due to massive infrastructure purchases. Additionally, memory manufacturers are redirecting part of their capacity toward HBM, which is used extensively in this sector.
What is China’s role?*
Currently, China is investing heavily in this sector, but there are two conflicting views. The first suggests that the country’s investments could pay off as early as the second half of 2027, with wafer production increasing by 6 million units. The second, from Jefferies, is more pessimistic and suggests that the impact of Chinese companies could be limited in 2026 and 2027.
In any case, analysts seem to agree that pressure on the memory market will ease in 2028. Until then, investment is expected to slow, while prices could fall by 15 to 20 percent—a decline that would be moderate.